Statistical prediction can be tricky & when the present relies much on future, then it could be dangerous too. In telecom, firms have often predicted subscriber growth, revenues etc but often failed to understand the socio-polito-economic fabrics of the country. Really speaking no one can predict future of telecom India and when you try to do so, you often miss the mark with high margins. How many firms have predicted the explosive growth of telecom sector in last decade? Who has predicted the turmoil in sector & its implications? Who has predicted the negative revenue trends earlier? Perhaps no one!
Still everyday, I keep on getting at least 5-10 emails in my inbox, stating growth prospects of XXX & XXX in XX-XX period. What surprises to me that despite so many misses, firms stress the accuracy of future predictions, as if they had known what would be ‘ unknown unknown’ with conformity. I stopped bothering about them since telecom started getting winded up in hands of few selfish personalities, who little bothered about sector, its developments & more importantly its people. Today ask any telecom firm’s employee & you would realize how insecure & uncertain their jobs have become in past 2-3 years. There is hardly any escape now!
So where are we heading now? Mind you, I’m not here to predict the unknown but to shade some light on future paths, which could potentially have some advantages over others. After all, we consumers hardly bothered of 3G/WiMAX/LTE/Wi-Fi & really not interested in knowing details of it. But alas, we have to face some notorious fact that unlike other industries, technological adoption is quite fast here, where consumers’ adoption relies on simplicity & more towards cost usability.
- 3G/HSPA: I would bet high on it for long terms. Although the present state of 3G isn’t that rosy, it’s just the beginning. Who among us were there when 2G services were just rolled out? Hardly few of us- right? It would take somewhere around 5-7 years for 3G or 3G+/HSPA to completely prove its technological mettle and prowess. By that time, mobile data usage would mature to certain level with wide adoption of mass market. So really don’t try to punish 3G only because you don’t get indoor coverage- it’s going to improve. Companies have to stay on-course to satisfy the needs of consumers & understand that, no one can match 2G network coverage & scalability overnight. This understanding is needed more on user’s part also. Spectrum crunch is just another impediment for smooth data surfing on 3G. Just imagine Indian Companies have got 5MHz for thousands of crore, while globally on an average operators have got in range of 10-20 MHz Bandwidth through auction. We can’t help it out!
- TD-LTE: It’s going to here soon. That’s sure now. What I would like to point here is that, it would quite easy (cost-wise) if I can use it in my existing devices. The technology primarily adopted for data usage, but could be used for voice as well. Again spectrum crunch, lack of user end devices are impediments to wide & quick adoption, but by 2020 or may be a bit earlier, I would see people watching YouTube videos, while on move in city. After all I mayn’t be going to invest thousands of rupees for buying LTE devices for just surfing Internet on move. I would better go home/office & revert back on Wi-Fi. The prospects are quite rosy but uncertainty is quite high at the time of writing.
- WiMAX: This fellow has fallen short now in race with LTE for same category of services. While it’s widely known that majority of the BWA License holders won’t be going WiMAX way, except BSNL there’s little for WiMAX in India now. I often feel sorry for WiMAX when I read news of LTE arrival. It’s quite sound technology with huge proven potential. It arrived much earlier than LTE, got widely deployed but later skipped or migrated to LTE, just for not-so-sure reasons. And now there’s adoption of LTE over WiMAX by operators globally, everyone is thinking of LTE in wider perspective, though economics behind are not known fully to me. Why companies bet high new/unknown over mature/proven is still not known.
- Wi-Fi or Data Offload: There’s curious case of a decade old technology getting all of a sudden attention these day. When you hear Wi-Fi will be next big thing, then doubt that. Reason being- operators are taking chance only because 3G isn’t delivering promises due to spectrum crunch. It’s based on the premise that spectrum crunch is not likely to be resolved in coming 10 years, but yes what shall we be doing for next 10 years? 3G will be maturing only in 5-10 years time, WiMAX going to see farewell, LTE is just coming- we can’t just sit down quietly and see data usage exploding our networks. Wi-Fi is often quick route to data revenue paradise, but mind you the mobility aspect of cellular or 3G isn’t there in Wi-Fi. So ultimately you have to sit down at one place to download YouTube videos. Escape to data paradise on move is still distant.
- Femtocells: I wish I could have known them better. It’s in 2007, I heard them first time and in last 4 years things have hardly changed. Reason being, the cost of femtocells & handover aspects. Also, they don’t support multi operator systems. These are indoor home radios, if devoid of all present issues, would be getting deployed in homes for cellular coverage, which in turn can be utilized for data & VoIP calls. Let’s keep fingers crossed.
It’s hardly true that revenues in telecom will remain same over coming years. But yes, we need differential thinking & re-think our business models urgently. I often love the cliché framed by late legendary economist Mr.C.K. Prahlad- ‘ Finding Fortune at the Bottom of Pyramid’. Can we really do it in telecoms? I wish I knew it!
