2009 was the year which every telecom employee in India would like to rub down from memory. With virtually no pay rise, the year also saw the launch of unconventional per-sec-billing tariff plan. With per annum revenue rolling down further along with dip in ARPU figures, Indian telecom operator has to remain content with one fact amid deeply fragmented market– net wireless subscriber addition doesn’t seem to be subsiding and trend will likely to continue this year as well.
Telegeography, the telecom market research firm, recently released the year 2009 global mobile & broadband subscriber base figures. Though statistics are very encouraging for wireless sub base growth, picture of broadband growth isn’t that rosy. Some of the highlights of report are:-
- Wireless subscriber base growth was decent at 15{af589cdba9d77786c8c861317dbad60bba1e2ebbf56e2ffab874a1b59fde9ce3}, while broadband sub base grew at 14{af589cdba9d77786c8c861317dbad60bba1e2ebbf56e2ffab874a1b59fde9ce3} in 2009.
- The top 20 service providers registered less than 2{af589cdba9d77786c8c861317dbad60bba1e2ebbf56e2ffab874a1b59fde9ce3} growth in their aggregated annual revenues (AGR), most of which was the result of M&A activity.
- If you go with per quarter results, wireless subscriber base growth rebounded in Q3 & Q4, from low mark of 3.3{af589cdba9d77786c8c861317dbad60bba1e2ebbf56e2ffab874a1b59fde9ce3} in Q2.
- Wireless subscriber growth in Western Europe has slowed to a crawl, with North America and Eastern Europe faring little better, while India & China are marching ahead in subscriber addition accounting to 70{af589cdba9d77786c8c861317dbad60bba1e2ebbf56e2ffab874a1b59fde9ce3} new wireless subscriber addition in Asia-Pacific region.
With more than 545 million wireless subscribers in belly, India may overtake China, if growth rate continues in coming years. But pain lies in broadband penetration. There were mere 2 million broadband subscribers (5.8 million in Feb-09 to 8 million in Jan-10) added in 2009, as opposite to avg 8-10 million wireless subscribers addition per month. Same trend can be seen in global broadband growth as well. But why is it so?
’While wireless prices tumble and come within reach of many poorer populations, broadband remains a luxury that is well beyond the reach of most,’ said TeleGeography’s John Dinsdale. ‘China and India are both in the top 10 list of broadband growth countries, but they do not dominate it. That top 10 also includes four of the richest countries, Russia and three Latin American countries. In India, you have to shell out from Rs 400-1500 for a broadband connection of >512Kbps and there are lots of Quality of Service issues pertaining to broadband, which need to be addressed. Certainly, price of a connection, whether wireless or broadband, seems to be the main driving factor in growth and trend will likely to continue, unless there’s something out-of-box for broadband tariffs.
