After successful completion of 3G Spectrum auctions in last month, seven Indian Telecom Operators are now gearing up for next phase of 3G services deployments i.e. network rollouts. I hope, as promised by DoT, the allocated spectrum will be handed over to respective winners by Sep-10, as the issue of spectrum handover was again mired with controversy between Ministry of Defense (MoD) & DoT. But let’s take controversy apart & see how 3G market in India will shape up in next five years? Who will lead the subscriber growth in 3G? What will happen to BSNL & MTNL? These questions are quite interesting & nevertheless, expectations are high too!

The latest Wireless Intelligence Report released yesterday, portrays quite satisfactory growth of Indian 3G subscriber base over next half-decade. According to the report WDMA i.e. 3G will account for 13{af589cdba9d77786c8c861317dbad60bba1e2ebbf56e2ffab874a1b59fde9ce3} of total mobile connections by 2014 in India. The report also predicts that 3G connections will surpass mark of 10 million by Q1 2011, will reach 100 million by Q1 2014, and will hit mark of 150 million by 2014 year end. Let’s highlight key findings of the report here:-

  • By the year end BSNL will account for two third of 3G sub base in India ( Due to First Mover’s advantage), while its counterpart MTNL, which operates in Delhi & Mumbai only, will account for 10{af589cdba9d77786c8c861317dbad60bba1e2ebbf56e2ffab874a1b59fde9ce3} of 3G sub base.
  • By 2014, top three Indian Telcos namely Rcom, Airtel & Vodafone-Essar will account for 43{af589cdba9d77786c8c861317dbad60bba1e2ebbf56e2ffab874a1b59fde9ce3} of WCDMA market share, while tier-II operators Idea, Aircel, STel & Tata Tele’s combined  market share will stand at 32{af589cdba9d77786c8c861317dbad60bba1e2ebbf56e2ffab874a1b59fde9ce3}. At the same time BSNL & MTNL’s combined 3G market share will drop to 22{af589cdba9d77786c8c861317dbad60bba1e2ebbf56e2ffab874a1b59fde9ce3}.
  • India Telcos are expected to rollout 3G network by year end i.e. within span of 6-8 months after spectrum auctions. Metro circles will initially charge up the subscriber additions, which will be outpaced by Category A & B Telecom circles soon.
  • By 2014, Category A & B circles will comprise of more than two third of 3G connection base, while Metro circles namely Mumbai, Delhi & Kolkata will account for 10{af589cdba9d77786c8c861317dbad60bba1e2ebbf56e2ffab874a1b59fde9ce3} of connection base. Outside Delhi & Mumbai, Maharashtra, Tamilnadu, Haryana, West Bengal, Assam & NE are likely to be most competitive 3G telecom circles.

The report also analyses the developments in Indian Telecom Market during last one year period. According to the report, in last 10 months, Idea & MTS launched operations in 6 new circles, DoCoMo took its GSM presence tally to 17 circles ( Coincidently Tata DoCoMo Celebrated its first Birthday yesterday), Cheers in 9, Videocon in 6 & STel in 3.  Report also forecasts that by 2013 Indian 2G subscriber base is likely to cross 1 billion mark.

Tags : 3G ForecastAircelAirtelBroadbandDoTIdeaTataDoCoMoTRAIWDMAWireless Intelligence